Experts feel that the food grain production in the current rabi season may set a new record, exceeding the all-time high output of 109.82 million tonnes in 2008. With heavy procurement of wheat expected from the fresh crop to be harvested in April, the official wheat inventory might again swell to unsustainable level. The preliminary estimates put out by the agriculture ministry on February 12 had, however, projected the likely wheat harvest at 77.78 million tones; these estimates were likely to be revised upwards.
Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar had indicated in Parliament last week that the country was once again heading towards a wheat glut.
On the eve of the harvesting of fresh wheat crop, the official food reserves would have around 13 million tonnes of wheat, against the buffer stock norm of 4 million tonnes.
The wheat procurement in the ensuing rabi marketing season in April and May might be between 20 and 22 million tonnes, pushing up the total wheat inventory to beyond 33 million tonnes. The government needs only about 12 million tonnes of wheat in a year to meet the requirement of the public distribution system and welfare programmes. Surinder Sud – BS-February 23, 2009
Even though there was bumper harvest of wheat and rice, exports were banned with the result farmers were deprived of benefit of high international prices. Now the stocks are rotting in the silos and Government is thinking of allowing exports by providing subsidy as international prices have come down. Farmers are paying the price for the muddled policies of the Government. The carrying cost in FCI godowns is Rs 2,400 a tonne a Year. For each month of storage the cost gets pushed up by Rs 200 a tonne. In other words, a tonne of stored wheat would cost Rs 12,400 (at procurement price of Rs 10,000 a tonne plus a local tax of Rs 1,000 paid at the time of procurement. For 21 million tonnes of wheat that might remain in the FCI godowns for a year, government will have to incur a staggering Rs 10,000 crore just for storage.
PULSES SHORTAGE >
Since 1967, the overall yield growth in pulses has not matched the yield growth in other crops, a recent study on pulses conducted by industry association Assocham said. This, since the green revolution during the 1960s, which pushed up production of major foodgrains like wheat, rice and oilseeds in the process making the country self-sufficient in essential commodities, bypassed pulses production. The Assocham study said that since the green revolution, while per hectare yield of wheat, rice, oilseeds and maize has risen by 2.8%, 2.23%, 1.8% and 1.7% respectively, yield of pulses has risen by just 1.14%. The rise is the least among major crops grown in the country. The study also showed that if corrective steps are not taken immediately, India's per capita pulses consumption will fall by another 10 kilogram by 2010 due to decline in production and constant rise in prices. Already, per capita pulses consumption in India has dropped by around 53% since 1958-59 from 27.3 kg a year to around 12.7 kg a year. The study also points out that because of slow growth in area under pulses cultivation and stagnating yields. India's annual pulses production witnessed a very slow growth of 0.9% in the last five decades.
"As a matter of fact, pulses output in the country never breached the level of 14.91 million tonne achieved in 1998-99, until 2007-08 when it clocked a fresh record high of 15.1 million tonne," the Assocham study said. In 2008-09, as per the government's second advanced crop estimates, released last week, India's pulses production is expected to drop by around 4% at 14.25 million tonne compared to last year, owing of fall in acreage. Experts believe that with demand at around 17-18 million tonne, the country will continue to remain perennially short of supplies and will have to resort to imports.
"Pulses imports grew at 10.76% between 1980-81 and 2006-07. This was aided by low tariff and constantly rising demand," the study said, adding that major pulses producing countries like Canada and Australia are already factoring in Indian demand in their production plans and are highly successful in exploiting the Indian situation. The study also reveals another fact: it says that though India remained deficient in pulses production leading to increasing imports, its pulses exports grew faster than imports before all exports were banned in 2006. "Between 1980-81 and 2005-06, India's pulses exports grew from 1.09 thousand tonne to 447.44 thousand tonne," the study said.
The report concluded by saying that if adequate attention is not paid towards pulses production in the country by bringing in more area and improving yields, supplies would remain constrained in the near future. "As pulses are not an important crop for human consumption in the developed and other major developing countries and is mostly used for feed purposes, supply in overseas markets is limited. Hence, if production in India dips, it become very difficult to fill the gap from global markets," the study said. ASSOCHAM-150209
Sugar Scarcity >
Government, with mule like obduracy, refused to hike MSP of sugarcane even though warranted by increase in cost of production. There was no increase in MSP of sugarcane of Rs 81 even after CACP recommended Rs125 per quintal. Consequently sugarcane cultivation dwindled with the result sugar mills are closing in Feb itself. In U P alone there is 50% reduction in sugar production. Gauging the shortage of sugarcane, the government pegged sugar output at 18 million tonnes for this season, down 32 per cent from the last year level of about 26.4 million tonnes. We are forced to import raw sugar, thanks to the refusal by Govt to hike MSP of sugarcane. The Union Cabinet has now decided to impose a limit for four months on the stocks of sugar a trader can keep, to check possible hoarding. This comes amidst a price rise triggered by an estimated slump in output.
All these because of faulty short sighted policies of the government and the farmers are made to suffer for governments’ faulty policies.
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