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The World Bank Report looks at options to tackle the problem of adaptation to climate change in selected climate hotspots. The regional focus is on two drought-prone regions of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra and a flood prone region in Orissa. The study addresses both current climate vulnerabilities, identifies effective coping strategies and investigates future climate impacts and adaptive responses. |
Climate variability and climate change are resulting in a more severe occurrence of extreme events, such as droughts, floods and cyclones, which affect the poor most, and jeopardize agricultural production and livelihoods of rural communities. The impacts on countries like India are likely to be significant as about 20 percent of India’s GDP is attributable to the agriculture sector which employs 57 percent of the total workforce.
“For example, the Report says incomes on the small rain-fed farms in Andhra Pradesh could decline by 5 percent under modest climate change and by over 20 percent under harsher conditions, bringing farmers closer to, and in many cases, under the poverty line. Many of the actions and policies that would build future climate resilience produce development benefits here and now. Focusing on these measures would thus yield a double dividend for development and climate sustainability |
The Report makes a strong case for a shift in agricultural systems in order to overcome future climate change pressures. For example, climate models predict that under the climate change scenario, sugarcane yields are expected to decline considerably (by nearly 30 percent) in Maharashtra, as a result of increased moisture stress caused by warmer climate in the future, it states. “While much is already occurring across the country and there is research in dryland farming for rice, horticulture, and numerous other crops, small and medium farmers in dryland areas will need greater support with knowledge and policy assistance to make this transition work on a large scale.
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The climate change projections indicate that even when farmers have largely adapted to arid cropping patterns, increased demand and consequent water stress could severely jeopardize livelihoods and diminish agricultural productivity. |
Amongst its several suggestions to better manage climate risks, the report emphasizes the need for aggressively pursuing water conservation and controlling groundwater demand at a larger geographical scale and suggests strengthened support for agricultural research and extension to promote sustainable modes of dryland farming. |
Climate change-Key messages |
Climate change will make it harder to produce enough food for the world’s growing population, and will alter the timing, availability, and quality of water resources. To avoid encroaching into already-stressed ecosystems, societies will have to almost double the existing rate of agricultural productivity growth while minimizing the associated environmental damage. This requires dedicated efforts to deploy known but neglected practices, identify crop varieties able to withstand climate shocks, diversify rural livelihoods, improve management of forests, and invest in information systems. Countries will need to cooperate to manage shared water resources and fisheries and to improve food trade. Getting basic policies right matters, but new technologies and practices are also emerging. Financial incentives will help. Some countries are redirecting their agricultural subsidies to support environmental actions, and future credits for carbon stored in trees and soils could benefit emission reductions and conservation goals.
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| Increase in productivity cannot come at the expense of soil, water, or biodiversity as it has so often in the past. So countries will need to accelerate research, enhance extension services, and improve market infrastructure to get crops to market. But they also need to give farmers incentives to reduce carbon emissions from soil and deforestation. And they need to help farmers hedge against an uncertain climate by diversifying income sources and genetic traits of crops, and better integrate biodiversity into the agricultural landscape. |
• Research and development that produce new technologies and adapt them to local conditions can improve resource management, as can advisory services that help users learn about the options available to them.
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| • Property rights give users incentives to protect or invest in their resources. |
• Pricing resources in a way that reflects their full value gives incentives to use them efficiently. |
• Well-regulated markets are important for many agricultural and natural resource functions; infrastructure is also critical so that producers can access those markets effectively. |
• Strong institutions are important for setting and enforcing rules.
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• Information, at all levels, permits users and managers to make better choices. |
Recommendations : |
i. A climate information management system;
ii. Build climate risk assessment for long-lived infrastructure projects;
iii. Explore new and innovative financial instruments to promote income diversification in rural areas;
iv. Greater support for agricultural research and extension to promote sustainable modes of dryland farming |
| Highlights of the report : |
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In the arid study regions of Andhra Pradesh, climate projections indicate substantially higher temperatures (2.3 degree Celsius - 3.4 degree Celsius, on average) and a modest increase but more erratic rainfall (of about 4 percent to 8 percent at the basin level). With high prevailing baseline temperatures, these changes will generate deteriorating agro-climatic conditions, with declining yields for all the major crops (rice, groundnut and jowar). Farm incomes could substantially decline by over 20 percent. |
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In the drought prone belt of Maharashtra, climate projections suggest a significant though more variable increase in rainfall (approximately 20 percent to 30 percent at the basin level) accompanied by higher temperatures of about 2.4 degree Celsius - 3.8 degree Celsius, on average. As a result of the heat stress caused by a warmer climate, sugarcane yields are expected to decline considerably (by nearly 30 percent), even though there may be small improvements in the yields of several dryland crops. |
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In Orissa, climate projections suggest a substantial shift in the patterns of rainfall towards the flood-prone coastal regions with a dramatic increase in the incidence of flooding. In some districts rice yields will come down by as much as 12 percent. |
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For drought-prone areas, the report recommends the need for a diverse portfolio of cost-effective ways of reaching the poorer farmers to help reduce their risk exposure. |
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- Reforms in dryland farming which includes effective water management strategies;
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Opportunities for farm services with low costs of production and intensive agro-forestry and livestock based production systems;
- Instruments that tackle the problem of indebtedness and provides incentives for job mobility; and
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Provision of local public goods – notably infrastructure and education that provide opportunities for income diversification. The report suggests that much of the above can be achieved through sectoral programs and innovative institutional reforms to strengthen the resilience of communities and eco-systems against climate-related risks.
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For floods, the report suggests strengthened systems for detection and forecasting floods as well as structural and nonstructural measures for resilience building for reducing the adverse effects of climate change. |
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| Source: WB-Climate Change Impacts: Case Studies in India-JUN 08 |
| NOTES : |
| 1. CLIMATE CHANGE-IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE |
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In developing countries, climate change will cause yield declines for the most important crops. South Asia will be particularly hard hit.
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Climate change will have varying effects on irrigated yields across regions, but irrigated yields for all crops in South Asia will experience large declines.
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Climate change will result in additional price increases for the most important agricultural crops–rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans. Higher feed prices will result in higher meat prices. As a result, climate change will reduce the growth in meat consumption slightly and cause a more substantial fall in cereals consumption.
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Calorie availability in 2050 will not only be lower than in the no–climate-change scenario—it will actually decline relative to 2000 levels throughout the developing world.
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By 2050, the decline in calorie availability will increase child malnutrition by 20 percent relative to a world with no climate change. Climate change will eliminate much of the improvement in child malnourishment levels that would occur with no climate change.
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| Suggestions : |
| The results of this analysis suggest the following policy and program recommendations. |
1. Design and implement good overall development policies and programs.
A pro-growth, pro-poor development agenda that supports agricultural sustainability also contributes to food security and climate-change adaptation in the developing world. |
2. Increase investments in agricultural productivity.
Geater investments in agricultural science and technology are needed to meet the demands of a world population expected to reach 9 billion by 2050.
Productivity enhancements that increase farmers’ resilience in the face of climate-change pressures will have poverty-reducing effects.
Higher yields and more cropped area require maintaining and increasing the density of rural road networks to increase access to markets and reduce transaction costs. Investments in irrigation infrastructure are also needed, especially to improve the efficiency of water use, but care must be taken to avoid investments in places where wateravailability is likely to decline. |
3. Reinvigorate national research and extension programs.
Within countries, extension programs can play a key role in information sharing by transferring technology, facilitating interaction, building capacity among farmers, and encouraging farmers to form their own networks.
Extension services that specifically address climate-change adaptation include disseminating local cultivars of drought-resistant crop varieties, teaching improved management systems, and gathering information to facilitate national research work. Farmer organizations can be an effective information-sharing mechanism and have the potential to provide cost-effective links between government efforts and farmer activities. |
4. Support community-based adaptation strategies.
Community-based adaptation strategies can help rural communities strengthen their capacity to cope with disasters, improve their land-management skills, and diversify their livelihoods. |
5. Increase funding for adaptation programs by an additional $7 billion per year.
At least $7 billion per year in additional funding is required to finance the research, rural infrastructure, and irrigation investments needed to offset the negative effects of climate change on human well-being. South Asia requires investment in improving irrigation efficiency. IFARI Sep 09 |
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2. Unprecedented floods and droughts… |
Climate change is a reality. In the near future, the effects of climate change will impact us all adversely, but will severely affect the poorest. Climate change induced disasters have eroded the India’s Gross Domestic Product by 2 percent during 1996-2001 and consumed 12 percent of government revenue. It is the poorest whose entire existence, from food and shelter to employment, depends on natural resources and the environment. It’s time to act. UNDP |
According to International Centre for Food Policy Research study findings, even at the present level of climate change India, whose agriculture is heavily dependent on monsoons, could lose its ability to feed a population that is estimated to increase by 500 million by 2050, and large numbers of people are likely to be dislocated by rising sea levels, floods and droughts. Mankind’s escape from poverty through conventional industrialisation added hugely to the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and that developing countries may not be able to escape poverty in the same way. ET 161009 |
| KRSR/121209 Compiled By: K. Ramasubba Reddy |
