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The overarching aim of the Copenhagen summit was to endorse the scientific view that a rise in average temperatures of more than 2 degrees would have terrible consequences on the world’s climate, causing rising sea levels, droughts and storms.
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The leaders of the world’s biggest economies reached what even its authors described as an insufficient deal aimed at slowing global warming after 11th-hour discussions in Copenhagen early Saturday. U.S. and China account for about 40 per cent of global emissions.
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The agreement, brokered by the United States and China, backs scientists’ call to limit global warming to within 2 degrees centigrade against pre-industrial levels.
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But it contains no improved targets on greenhouse gas emissions from rich nations, and does not commit anyone to a legally binding text. Attempts to reach an effective treaty will now be taken up next year. U.S refused to go beyond a previous commitment to cut his country’s emissions by “in the range of 17 per cent by 2020. |
While it was endorsed by other big players such as the European Union, India and South Africa, the so-called Copenhagen Accord was rejected by smaller U.N. members such as Sudan, which during the conference acted as the chair of the G77 group of developing nations. AP 181209
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Climate Change-Adverse effect on Indian Agriculture
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*incomes of the small rain-fed farms in Andhra Pradesh could decline by 5 percent under modest climate change and by over 20 percent under harsher conditions, bringing farmers closer to, and in many cases, under the poverty line.
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| *sugarcane yields are expected to decline considerably (by nearly 30 percent) in Maharashtra, as a result of increased moisture stress caused by warmer climate in the future, it states. |
In the arid study regions of Andhra Pradesh, climate projections indicate substantially higher temperatures (2.3 degree Celsius - 3.4 degree Celsius, on average) and a modest increase but more erratic rainfall (of about 4 percent to 8 percent at the basin level). With high prevailing baseline temperatures, these changes will generate deteriorating agro-climatic conditions, with declining yields for all the major crops (rice, groundnut and jowar).
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| Farm incomes could substantially decline by over 20 percent. |
Climate change to affect wheat output, Study
“In the absence of effective adaptation, the country would lose 3.9 million tonne of wheat yield due to climate change by 2020 and 11.7 million tonne by 2050 and 23.5 million tonne by 2080. Per hectare wheat yield in India is needed to be increased to 3.8-4 tonne by 2020 and more than 4 tonne by 2050 to feed the growing population ,” the ICAR study showed.
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However, the assessment also observed that though adaptation strategies have the potential to nullify these losses completely in the short run, those would be less effective in the long run. The study also analysed that the adjust potential yields have slowly increased from 4.25 tonne per hectare in 1960 to 4.8 tonne in 2000 largely because of expansion of irrigation in wheat producing regions of northern India. On an average, this increase in potential yields was 14 kg per hectare per year. FE Dec 14, 2009 |
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In the drought prone belt of Maharashtra, climate projections suggest a significant though more variable increase in rainfall (approximately 20 percent to 30 percent at the basin level) accompanied by higher temperatures of about 2.4 degree Celsius - 3.8 degree Celsius, on average. As a result of the heat stress caused by a warmer climate, sugarcane yields are expected to decline considerably (by nearly 30 percent), even though there may be small improvements in the yields of several dryland crops. |
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In Orissa, climate projections suggest a substantial shift in the patterns of rainfall towards the flood-prone coastal regions with a dramatic increase in the incidence of flooding.
In some districts rice yields will come down by as much as 12 percent. |
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For drought-prone areas, the report recommends the need for a diverse portfolio of cost-effective ways of reaching the poorer farmers to help reduce their risk exposure.
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Required Remedial Actions : |
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Reforms in dryland farming which includes effective water management strategies;
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Opportunities for farm services with low costs of production and intensive agro-forestry and livestock based production systems;
- Instruments that tackle the problem of indebtedness and provides incentives for job mobility; and
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Provision of local public goods – notably infrastructure and education that provide opportunities for income diversification. The report suggests that much of the above can be achieved through sectoral programs and innovative institutional reforms to strengthen the resilience of communities and eco-systems against climate-related risks.
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For floods, the report suggests strengthened systems for detection and forecasting floods as well as structural and nonstructural measures for resilience building for reducing the adverse effects of climate change. |
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| NOTE: Climate change-Impact on Agriculture |
| Key messages : |
Climate change will make it harder to produce enough food for the world’s growing population, and will alter the timing, availability, and quality of water resources. To avoid encroaching into already-stressed ecosystems, societies will have to almost double the existing rate of agricultural productivity growth while minimizing the associated environmental damage. This requires dedicated efforts to deploy known but neglected practices, identify crop varieties able to withstand climate shocks, diversify rural livelihoods, improve management of forests, and invest in information systems. |
Countries will need to cooperate to manage shared water resources and fisheries and to improve food trade. Getting basic policies right matters, but new technologies and practices are also emerging. Financial incentives will help. Some countries are redirecting their agricultural subsidies to support environmental actions, and future credits for carbon stored in trees and soils could benefit emission reductions and conservation goals. |
Increase in productivity cannot come at the expense of soil, water, or biodiversity as it has so often in the past. So countries will need to accelerate research, enhance extension services, and improve market infrastructure to get crops to market. But they also need to give farmers incentives to reduce carbon emissions from soil and deforestation. And they need to help farmers hedge against an uncertain climate by diversifying income sources and genetic traits of crops, and better integrate biodiversity into the agricultural landscape. |
| • Research and developmentthat produce new technologies and adapt them to local conditions can improve resource management, as can advisory services that help users learn about the options available to them. |
| • Property rightsgive users incentives to protect or invest in their resources. |
| • Pricing resourcesin a way that reflects their full value gives incentives to use them efficiently. |
| • Well-regulated marketsare important for many agricultural and natural resource functions; infrastructure is also critical so that producers can access those markets effectively. |
| • Strong institutionsare important for setting and enforcing rules. |
| • Information, at all levels, permits users and managers to make better choices. |
| Part of the solution |
Food production will have to increase by 70 percent to feed an additional 2.3 billion people by 2050. Climate change threatens agricultural production through higher temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns, and increased occurrences of droughts and floods, especially in areas that are already prone to climate-related disasters. Poorest regions with the highest levels of chronic hunger are likely to be among the worst affected by climate change, |
"Agriculture offers readily available and cost-effective options for reducing the emission of greenhouse gases, and can start to do so now. And climate financing mechanisms targeting agriculture could speed up efforts to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change, while helping to reduce hunger and poverty " |
| In contrast some other sectors may well require investments in expensive technologies and new, long-term research. |
Certain farming practices, including those used by organic and conservation agriculture, capture carbon and store it in soils. These include no/low tillage, utilizing residues for composting or mulching, use of perennial crops to cover soil, re-seeding or improving grazing management on grasslands and agroforestry, which combines crops and trees. |
The idea is to disturb the soil as little as possible, keep it covered and mix and rotate crops, so that carbon is taken out of the atmosphere and parked in soils and vegetation. Nearly 90 percent of agriculture's potential to reduce or remove emissions from the atmosphere comes from such practices. |
Beyond soil carbon sequestration, more efficient fertilizer use and management of livestock systems are also promising options that enhance emission removals and reductions. Many of these activities may also reduce deforestation and forest degradation due to their associated productivity gains, that means more food can be produced without expansion of agriculture into forests. |
Improved farming practices required for climate change mitigation are often the same as those needed to increase productivity, food security and adaptation, including the restoration of degraded agricultural lands, integrated nutrient and soil management and agroforestry. FAO
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