"The existence of drought by itself can lead to some shaving" off of the growth projections. The impact, however, would not be much on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as agriculture production constitutes less than 20 per cent of the economy, Mr. Ahluwalia said.

On the impact of decline in farm output on economic growth, he said, "If you have decline in farm production, one fifth of that percentage would be knocked off from projected GDP growth rate. Obviously, there would be some effect but not very large". Pointing out that Kharif (summer crop) will suffer on account of poor monsoon, Mr. Ahluwalia said, there would be no impact on Rabi (winter crop). TH 180809

Comments: There are reports in financial newspapers that the ongoing drought affecting nearly 200 districts in the country may not have much effect on GDP, since the farmers in the drought-affected areas contribute hardly 3 per cent to GDP. It is sad that such a measure of the impact of drought on the lives and livelihoods of millions of rural families is even considered. It is this mindset that is responsible for our country being the home of the largest number of poor and malnourished people in the world. P. Sainath’s article in The Hindu. M.S Swaminathan

Immediate Action Needed: With the help of State governments, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), and agricultural universities, the situation in each State may be classified into the following two categories.

Apart from the relief operations normally undertaken, the urgent needs of MSA areas are: saving farm animals from distress sale through Farm Animal Camps near a water source or near a groundwater sanctuary (that is, a concealed aquifer which can be exploited during the emergency) and where animals can be fed with agricultural residues enriched with urea and molasses. Distress sale of farm animals is a clear index of extreme despair.

A “Beyond the Drought Programme” should be organised. This should involve short duration crops like saathi maize (60 days maize), sweet potato, pulses, oilseeds, fodder crops, and other less water-requiring but high-value crops, according to scientifically prepared contingency plans.

Another urgent need is the launch of “A Pond in Every Farm” movement. This can be done by permitting NREGA workers to build Jat Kunds in the farms of small and marginal farmers (see also Sainath, The Hindu, 15 August 2009). The revised NREGA guidelines permit this. At least five cents in every acre should be reserved for the construction of ponds to store rainwater. Where there is adequate ground water in MSA areas, subsidised electricity and diesel should be made available on a priority basis. Energy is the key limiting factor in taking advantage of ground water.

Action during 2009-10: During the next few months, detailed drought, flood, and good weather codes should be prepared for every agro-climatic zone in the country. These codes should indicate the pro-active measures such as building Seed Banks of alternative crops needed for minimising the adverse impact of rainfall abnormalities. The Good Weather Code should provide guidelines for maximising the benefits of good soil moisture. Another step urgently needed is the identification and training of two members of every panchayat – one woman, one man – as Climate Risk Managers. It is best that they are identified by the Gram Sabha.

This could include the following :

(a) Build a national grid of ultra-modern grain storage structures all over the country. To start with, at least 50 such storage facilities each capable of holding one million tonnes of food grains can be constructed, thereby making it clear that government intends to remain at the commanding heights of our food security system.

(b) Promote through Gram Sabhas community food and water security systems. This should involve establishing at the village level seed, grain, and water banks. Seed banks will help to introduce alternative cropping strategies and contingency plans to suit different rainfall patterns.

Over 40 per cent of the farmers interviewed by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) said they wanted to quit farming, if there was another option. No further time should be lost in implementing the commitments made under the National Policy for Farmers presented in Parliament in November 2007 — if the desire of the Prime Minister that there should be another green revolution is to materialise. TH160809

A huge fall in farm incomes is in the offing. If the government wants to act on a war footing, it could start with a serious expansion of the NREGS (about the only lifejacket people in districts like Anantapur in Andhra Pradesh have at this point, for instance).

It could launch, among many other things, the pond-in-every-farm programme. It could restructure farm loan schedules. It could start getting the idea of monsoon management into its thinking. It could curb forward trading-linked speculation that was driving one of our worst price rises in history long before the drought was on the horizon. And it could declare universal access to the PDS. That cost could probably be easily covered by, say, cancelling the dessert from the menu of the unending corporate free lunch in this country.

Strategies should be devised to minimise field and post-harvest losses through integrated pest management practices and creation of efficient food grain handling and storage systems. Efforts must be made in developing drought resistant seeds and cost-effective dry-land farming as rain water harvesting techniques.

Inter-cropping to enhance better utilisation of rain-fed areas (which account for about 70 per cent of the cultivated land) should also be encouraged.

The government, through investments in vital agriculture infrastructure, credit linkages and encouraging the use of latest techniques, motivate each district/ block to achieve local self-sufficiency in foodgrain production. However, instead of concentrating only on rice or wheat, the food crop with specific potential in the area must be encouraged.

Unlike several countries, India’s public procurement and distribution system has not failed completely. However, there is a need to revamp the existing public distribution system (PDS) by de-linking head count ratio (as it does not reflect calorie intake) of poverty from allocation of PDS food grains and making “PDS universal”. The issue price categorisation is imperfect and a number of deserving underprivileged population get excluded from the BPL fold, thus impacting the efficacy of the system.

The substantial rise in the central procurement price for wheat and rice will encourage the farmers to improve productivity.