Articles >
Why Agri GDP is Declining Decade after Decade? Part-B K. Ramasubba Reddy
Abstract:
*While the GDP from agriculture has more than quadrupled from Rs. 108374 crore in 1950-51 to Rs. 4,85,937 crore in 2006-07 (at 1999-2000 prices), the increase per worker is only about 75% higher in real terms than in 1950 compared to 400%  higher increase in overall real percapita GDP.
*Kaushik Basu, Chief Economic Advisor, when queried as to what needs to be done to boost agricultural growth, stated that ‘4 per cent annual growth in agriculture is something we can realistically aspire to. Our aim has to be productivity. For that, we need infrastructure and investment — regular power supply, irrigation and decent fertilisers’ (Q&A-B.S. 07-06-10)
But the reality is opposite of what has been stated as the need for investment in Agri  infra development. There is continuous decline in public outlays and investments in Agri Sector for over two decades.
*After the economic reforms started, the government’s expenditure and investment in the agricultural sector have been drastically reduced. The expenditure of the government in rural development, including agriculture, irrigation, flood control, village industry, energy and transport, declined from an average of 14.5 per cent in 1986-1990 to six per cent in 1995-2000. The allocation to Agri sector amounts to just about 2.86% of the massive Central Plan Outlay of the Government of India of Rs. 5,24,484 crore for 2010-11.
*The  long-term neglect of agriculture has affected adversely the level and pattern of agricultural production to an extent where supply-side constraints are leading to inflation. Agriculture sector after decades of neglect needs to be infused with higher levels of investment to ensure 4% Agri GDP growth. Nothing short of doubling the investment will do. Any half measures or isolated knee jerk reactions would not only prove grossly inadequate but are bound to fail.
1.Role and Importance of Agriculture in the Indian Economy
Agriculture, provides the underpinning for our food and livelihood security and support for the economic growth and social transformation of the country. During 2008-09 the agricultural sector contributed to approximately 15.7 per cent of India's GDP (at 2004-05 prices) and 10.23 per cent of total exports besides providing employment to around 58 per cent of the work force.
In the recent past, the impact of various food, financial and economic crises has been felt across the world. This has compromised the lives, livelihood and food security of the people. Therefore, there is a compelling case for increased investment in the sector.
The continued high growth of agriculture is essential to meet the food and nutritional security requirements of the people and provide livelihood and income in rural areas. Agriculture should  have priority in national policies and plans, since the nation's food security depends on the performance of the agricultural sector.
2.Continuous decline in the plan outlays for Agriculture
Kaushik Basu, Chief Economic Advisor, when queried as to What needs to be done to boost agricultural growth, stated that ‘4 per cent annual growth in agriculture is something we can realistically aspire to. Our aim has to be productivity. For that, we need infrastructure and investment — regular power supply, irrigation and decent fertilisers’
But the reality is opposite of what has been stated as the need for investment in Agri  infra development. There is continuous decline in public outlays and investments in Agri Sector for over two decades.
After the economic reforms started, the government’s expenditure and investment in the agricultural sector have been drastically reduced.
Plan out lays for Agriculture are continuously declining from one plan period to another and have been far below  Agri GDP share of 15% in the total GDP as seen from the figures given in the table below.
There has been continuous decline in the plan outlays for Agriculture. During 6th Five Year Plan the share was5.8%; the same declined to 4.9% during 9th Plan and further down to 3.8% during the XI Plan.
The share of expenditure on Research &Education was very low at 6% of the total development expenditure on Agriculture. The growth of public expenditure has slowed down since 1990s on Research and Extension, in constant terms. In the case of extension services the growth of expenditure was highest in the sixties resulting in acceleration in the agricultural growth. Thereafter the rate slowdown is very sharp. The rate of growth of expenditure on extension services has declined three-fold since 1990s.
The total expenditure on Agriculture fell from 13% in the 90s to 10% in the early part of the current decade.
VI Plan Agri
5.8
Irrigation Total
VIII Plan*
1992-97
5.2 7.5 12.7
IX Plan*
1997-2002
4.9 6.5 11.4
X Plan*
2002-07
3.9 6.8 10.6
XI Plan**
2007-12
3.8   8.55
*At 2001-02 prices  **@2006-07 Prices Source: Plan Documents
XI Plan Allocation: For the Eleventh Plan the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation have been allocated Rs. 66,577 crore .
 (Rs. in crore) Year BE RE Expenditure/ Release
2007-08 5560.00 6927.94 7058.50
2008-09 10105.67 9865.68 9530.30
2009-10 11307.07 10965.23 10617.30*
2010-11 15042.00 - -
An amount of Rs.27,554.03 crore (actual for year 2007-08 and 2008-09 and RE of 2009-10) would have been utilised from 2007-08 to 2009-10 , for implementation of various Plan schemes .
However, when the actual expenditure of Rs. 10617crore for 2009-10 is considered instead of the RE figure, the total utilisation of funds during the Eleventh Plan stands at Rs. 27206 crore. Allocation for 2010-11 is Rs.15,042 crore.
When the latter figure is taken into account, the total expenditure in first four years of XI Plan period will be Rs.42,248crore which leaves a whopping figure of  Rs.24,329 crore to be allocated in final year 11-12.
Annual Plan
As against a proposed outlay of Rs.17080 crore for the Annual Plan 2010-11, the Planning Commission have approved an outlay of Rs.15042  crore for DAC.
The allocation to DAC amounts to just about 2.86% of the massive Central Plan Outlay of the Government of India of Rs. 5,24,484 crore for 2010-11.
3.Decline in Capital Formation in Agriculture in 80s and 90s
Investment in Agriculture
Even though Agriculture is the life blood of the nation, public investment in agriculture, in real terms, had witnessed a steady decline from the Sixth Five Year Plan onwards.
Plan Sixth Plan
1980-85
Seventh
1985-90
Eighth
1992-97
Ninth
1997-2002
Tenth
2002-07
Amount
Rs in Crore
@64,012
@1999-2000 prices
@52,107 @45,565 @42,226 @67,260
Analysis of trends in public investment in agriculture and allied sectors reveal that it declined in real terms (at 1999-2000 prices) from Rs.64,012 crore during the Sixth Plan (1980-85) to Rs.52,107 crore during the Seventh Plan (1985-90) to Rs.45,565 crore during the Eighth Plan (1992-97), and Rs.42,226 crore during Ninth Plan (1997-2002). This trend was reversed in the Tenth Plan (2002-07), with public investment in agriculture of Rs.67,260 crore.
The share of agriculture and allied sectors in total gross capital formation has also progressively declined for nearly two decades.
 However, this trend has since been arrested and the share of capital formation of the agriculture and allied sectors in GDP has slowly increased from 14 per cent in 2004-05 to 21 per cent in 2008-09 (at 2004-05 prices). This needs to be increased further to 35% in line with Investment/GDP ratio.
The share of public investment to GDP of the agriculture and allied sectors has also increased from 2.9 per cent in 2004-05 to 3.8 per cent in 2008-09 (at 2004-05 prices). This needs to be increased proportionately to 5% to be in tune with Agri sector share in GDP.
4.Steady decline of Public investment in agriculture
 Public investment in agriculture, in real terms, had witnessed a steady decline from the Sixth Five Year Plan (1980-85) to the Ninth Five Year Plan (1997-2002). However, this trend was reversed in the Tenth Plan (2002–07), with public investment in agriculture to the tune of Rs.67,260 crore. Data on public and private investment in agriculture and allied sectors since 2004-05 is given below:
Public and Private Investment in Agriculture and

Allied Sectors (at 2004-05 prices) Year
Investment in Agriculture & Allied sectors (Rs. crore) Share in investment (per cent)
  Total Pub Pvt Pub Pvt
2004-05 78848 16183 62665 20.5 79.5
2005-06 93121 19909 73211 21.4 78.6
2006-07 94400 22978 71422 24.3 75.7
2007-08 110006 23039 86967 20.9 79.1
2008-09 138597 24452 114145 17.6 82.4
The share of agriculture and allied sectors in total gross capital formation has also progressively declined for nearly two decades.
Gross capital formation public and private in agriculture and allied sectors and its percentage share to GDP of agriculture and allied sectors is given below:
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Public and Private in Agriculture and Allied Sectors and its percentage share to GDP of Agriculture and Allied Sectors (at 2004-05prices)
(in Rs. crore) Year Public Invest-ment
(Rs. crore)
%age share in Agriculture and Allied Sector GDP Private
Invest-ment (Rs. crore)
%age share in Agriculture and Allied Sector GDP Total Invest-ment
(Rs. crore)
% share in GDP for Agriculture and Allied Sector
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2004-05 16183 2.9 62665 11.2 78848 14.1
2005-06 19909 3.4 73211 12.4 93121 15.8
2006-07 22978 3.8 71422 11.7 94400 15.4
2007-08 23039 3.6 86967 13.6 110006 17.2
2008-09 24452 3.8 114145 17.5 138597 21.3
While the GDP from agriculture has more than quadrupled from Rs. 108374 crore in 1950-51 to Rs. 4,85,937 crore in 2006-07 (at 1999-2000 prices), the increase per worker is only about 75% higher in real terms than in 1950 compared to 400%  increase in overall real percapita GDP.  (More details on declining agri investment trends are given in Annexures 1 &2)1950
SLOW INCREASE IN NVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE
 The combined public and private investment in Agriculture & Allied Sectors has increased slowly from the Tenth Plan period onwards. The share of public investment to GDP of agriculture & allied sectors has slowly increased from 2.9 per cent in 2004-05 to 3.8 per cent in 2008-09. This should be increased further to a level of 5%.
The adverse effect of long-term neglect of agriculture has affected the level and pattern of agricultural production to an extent where supply-side constraints are leading to inflation. Agriculture sector after years and years of neglect needs to be infused with higher levels of investment to ensure 4% Agri GDP growth. Nothing short of doubling the investment will do. Any half measures or isolated knee jerk reactions would not only prove grossly inadequate but are bound to fail.
Sources: Annual Report 2009-2010 on Agriculture/ Plan documents/Reports of Standing committee on Agriculture
Krsr/200610
ANNEXURE 1:
i. Gross Capital Formation in Agriculture (Rs in Crore at 1999-2000 prices)
Year GDP Agl CCF AGL GDP AGL CCF as % of GDP
2004-05 2388,768 57.849 482,446 2.4
2005-06 2626,101 66,065 511,013 2.6
2006-07 2871,120 73,285 531,315 2.5
2007-08 3129,717 79,328 557,122 2.5
The Gross Capital Formation (GCF) in agriculture as a proportion to the total GDP has shown a decline from 2.9 per cent in 2001-02 to 2.5% percent in 2007-08. As Gross Fixed Capital Formation is estimated at 35% of total GDP, 15% there of being agri sector’s share in GDP, should be invested in improving agri infra, This works out to more than 5% of the total GDP which means investment in agri infra should be doubled
ii. Agri sector Investment growth rate (at constant 1999-00 prices)
Share of Agl In total CGF (%) AT 1999-2000 PRICES
Year Public Sector Private Sector Total
1999-00 6.0 11.9 10.2
2000-01 5.8 11.3 9.7
2001-02 6.7 13.7 11.7
2002-03 6.5 11.5 10.3
2003-04 7.4 9.2 8.8
2004-05 7.8 7.7 7.7
2005-06 7.9 7.1 7.2
2006-07 8.2 6.6 7.0
The share of agriculture & allied sector in total GCF after showing a marginal increase during 1999-2000 to 2001-02 has been continuously declining. It stood at 10.2 per cent in 1999-2000, increased to 11.7 per cent in 2001-02 and thereafter declined to 7 per cent in 2006-07. The decline was mainly attributed to decline in the private sector despite increase in the share of public sector. This should be at least 15% of the total GDP, being the share of agri sector in the GDP which again means that investment in agri infra like irrigation, power, rural roads, godowns etc, should be doubled.
iii. Gross Capital Formation by Industry at Constant Prices (Percentage)
Sector 2000-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08
                 
Agl 9.7 11.7 10.3 8.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 6.7
Ind 37.0 32.4 38.3 42.2 49.2 50.4 51.5 50.1
Servs 53.3 55.9 51.5 49.1 43.1 42.3 41.4 43.2
GDP 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Source : Central Statistical Organisation.
In terms of economic activity, capital formation was highest at 50% in industrial sector. The share of agri sector continuously declined from 9.7% in FY 01 to 6.7% in FY 08.The share in capital formation of agri sector continued to be the lowest among all sectors.
iv. Gross Capital Formation by Industry at Constant Prices- Growth rate- (Percentage)
Sector 2000-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08
Agl 2.2 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3
Ind 8.6 7.4 9.4 10.7 14.1 15.9 16.9 17.4
Servs 12.4 12.8 12.6 12.5 12.4 13.3 13.6 15.0
GDP 23.2 22.9 24.4 25.5 28.7 31.6 32.8 34.7
Source : Central Statistical Organisation.
The growth rate of capital formation in agl sector was stagnant around 2% during this decade while the growth rate of industrial sector doubled from 8.6% to 17.4%. This clearly proves continues neglect of investments in agriculture.
v. Shortfall in Disbursal under Rural Infra Dev Fund (RIDF-upto2009- Rs in Crore)
Total Allocations 88,386
Disbursements 53,775
Shortfall   35,511
% Of shortfall  40%
Allocation for 2008-09 14,700           
Disbursals 
Up to Feb 09 
8,200
% Of shortfall  44%
Year after year, the shortfall in disbursals continues to be around 40%, since inception of the Scheme. Disbursal level should be improved substantially.
Annexure-2:
I. Agricultural growth slackened continuously by half from 4% during 1985-86/89 to 2% during 2000-01/2004-05.
Period 1980-81 to 84-85 85-86 to 89-90 1990-91 to 94-95 1995-96 to 99-2000 2000-2001 to 2004-05
Compound Av. growth rate 3.86 4.08 3.57 2.96 2.03
II * Expenditure on Rural development declined sharply by half during 1990s.
  1985-90 Average 1993-94 95-96 97-98 2000-01 2004-05 RE
1-Rural Dev Expenditure  as % 3.8 2,8 2.6 2.3 1.9 2.3
1- Above plus infrastructure 11.1 8.4 6.9 6.4 5.8 6.2
III. Nineteen nineties were marked by low investment in agriculture affecting the rate of growth of output.
Gross Capital Formation in Agriculture
(Rupees crore, 1999-2000 prices)
Year Total Public sector Private sector
1980-81 27,450 12,521 14.929
1990-91 35,573 7,882 27,691
2002-03 46.823 7,962 38,861
2004-05 48,576 10,267 38,309
IV. Decline in public investment in Agriculture
Over the years there is a decline in the share of agriculture investment
Period Share in total investment Share of Public Sector Investment in total investment
1970s 15% 14.3%
1980s 11% 11.6%
1990s  8% 6.5%
2006-07  7.0% 8.2%
V * Growth rate slowed in coverage of irrigated area in all the main crop categories from late nineties. The growth of expenditure on irrigation declined from 14% from the first half of 1990s to 10% in the second half of 1990s and further to 4% in the subsequent period.
Trend Growth Rate in Area    (% per Year)
Period 1980-81 to 90-91 1990-91 to 96-97 96-97 to 03-04
Gross irrigated area 2.28 2.62 0.51
VI * Rate of growth of expenditure on extension services has declined manifold since the nineties.
Growth in Real Public Expenditure on Research and Extension (Per cent)
Year Research& education Extension& training
1960s 6.5 10.7
1970s 9.5 0.00
1980s 6.3 7.0
1990-2005 4.8 2.0
VII. Continuous decline in the share of plan outlays
There has been continuous decline in the plan outlays for Agriculture.
Share of Agriculture
VI Plan 5.8%
IX Plan 4.9%
X Plan 3.9%
The total expenditure on Agriculture fell from 13% in the 90s to 10% in the early part of the current decade.
VIII * The flow of investment credit to agriculture is declining.
Growth of credit to agriculture was only 12 per cent during 1986-87 to 1994-95 as against target of 18%. The share of long-term loans to agriculture in outstanding credit by SCBs to agriculture declined sharply from 76% at end-March 1991 to 59 % at end-March 1996, to 40 % at end-March 2005 and further to 35 % at end-March 2006 before showing an improvement to 40% per cent at end-March 2007.
Agriculture credit flow
As on Mar 2001, only 20.2 per cent of operational holders availed of institutional credit for agricultural purposes (14 for marginal, 27.7 for small, 31.6 for semimedium, 33.1 for medium, and 29.4 for large).
Sources: Annual Report 2009-2010 on Agriculture/ Plan documents/Reports of Standing committee on Agriculture
 
 
® 2007 indianfarmers.org, All Rights Reserved.
hit counter
Hit counter
Home | About Us | Projects | Events | Articles | More info | Contact Us    
2007 indianfarmers.org, All Rights Reserved.