|
‘As this is only a guestimate dependant on rain gods being benign next year also and improvement in farm productivity, in all probability, Agri GDP growth during XI Plan too will be around 2.5% similar to Agri GDP growth rate of 2.51% during the X Plan period thus proving that all talk about 4% growth is nothing but day dreaming by armchair planners with no real understanding and capability to plan and achieve higher rate of growth’.
|
GDP growth rates-Actual and Projected-Unit-percent
|
| |
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2008-09 QE |
2009-10 RE |
2010-11 f |
2011-12 f |
| Agriculture |
5.2 |
3.7 |
4.7 |
1.6 |
0.2 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
| Industry |
9.3 |
12.7 |
9.5 |
3.9 |
9.3 |
9.7 |
10.3 |
| Services |
11.1 |
10.2 |
10.5 |
9.8 |
8.5 |
8.9 |
9.6 |
GDP @ factor cost
Non-Agl |
9.7
10.5 |
9.5
11.0 |
9.2
10.2 |
6.7
7.7 |
7.4
8.8 |
8.5
9.2 |
9.0
9.8 |
GDP-FC-Percapita
GDPpercapita@ curr. prices |
7.8
33,512 |
8.7
38,182 |
7.7
43,479 |
5.2
48.305 |
6.2
53,258 |
7.0
53,305 |
7.5
65,867 |
|
Source: PMEC Econ Outlook for 2010-11/qe: Quick Estimates, RE; Revised Estimates, fc: Forecast
|
The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) today pegged the farm sector growth rate at 4.5 per cent for 2010-11 fiscal on the expectation of a strong rebound in foodgrains output on the back of good monsoon.
|
The agriculture and allied sectors grew by mere 0.2 per cent in last fiscal due to a widespread drought which caused a 16 million tonnes or nearly seven per cent dip in foodgrains production from a record of 234.47 million tonnes in 2008-09.
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The panel noted that the expansion in horticulture and animal husbandry and a low base effect should generate a farm sector GDP growth of around 4.5 per cent in the current fiscal. It projected the sector to grow by 4 per cent in 2011-12.
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| In the first three years of the current Plan period, the farm sector has achieved an average annual growth of 2.16 per cent and if the PMEAC's projection for this fiscal and the next proves to be correct, then the average annual growth for the entire 11th Five-Year Plan Period would be 3 per cent. |
NOTE: As this is only a guestimate dependant on rain gods being benign next year also and improvement in farm productivity, in all probability, Agri GDP growth during XI Plan too will be around 2.5% similar to Agri GDP growth rate of 2.51% during the X Plan period thus proving that all talk about 4% growth is nothing but day dreaming by armchair planners with no real understanding and capability to plan and achieve higher rate of growth’.
|
| Pre-requisites for growth: Containing inflation, ensuring steady improvement in farm productivity and incomes, and closing the large physical infrastructure deficit, especially in the power sector. |
In particular, the overall low farm productivity would stand in the way of 9 per cent growth projections in the long run and this called for improving water and soil management along with better farm practices and cultivation of a wider range of crops.
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Infrastructure deficit
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The third area in which medium-term policy initiatives were necessary so as to maintain the growth momentum was the large gaps in physical infrastructure. “In the power sector, as against a planned target for creating 78,740 MW, it appears we would be lucky to get 62,000 MW by March 2012. This rests on large capacities being commissioned in 2010-11 and 2011-12. The failure to create physical infrastructure in time has not only been persistent, but has also been a significant contributor to lower competitiveness. PTI 230710
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Faster pace of Growth of Real GDP in recent decades
|
1900-2008 1950-2008 1980-2008 1990-2008 2000-08
3.16 4.79 6.08 6.39 7.19
2000-10 2006-10
7.25 8.20
|
Growth rates are approximate values.
Source: Calculated from CSO data -EPW. |
The Indian economy has been growing at a faster pace in recent decades
than it did in the first few decades after Independence. Two discernible phases of economic growth in India since Independence have been recognised: 1950 to 1980 and 1980 to 2008. Compared to the preceding 30 years, there was a distinct step-up in rates of growth for GDP and GDP per capita. The earlier period has been commonly described as “the Hindu growth rate era” in which the average growth rate was 3.5%. During the period from 1980 to 2008 the average growth rate has gone up to 6%. EPW/100710
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| TN hikes sugarcane price |
The Tamil Nadu Government has announced a State Advised Price of Rs 1,900 a tonne for sugarcane linked to a sugar recovery of 9.5 per cent.
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Targeting 6 crore farm holdings under crop insurance coverage
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The Agriculture Insurance Company of India (AIC) will bring half of the 12 crore farm holdings in the country under insurance cover in the next three to four years. So far 2.80 crore farmers are covered (2.50 crore farmers in the National Agriculture Insurance Scheme and 30 lakh in the weather-based insurance scheme). We will add another three crore in the next three to four years.
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Planning Commission accepts the Tendulkar Committee report on poverty estimation: based on which the number of BPL families would increase to over eight crore from the current 6.52 crore. |
| The EGoM to discuss a proposal to sell an additional 30 lakh tonnes of rice and wheat via PDS: to clear godowns as well as contain inflation. At present, the government godowns are overflowing with foodgrains amounting to 60 million tonnes, against the capacity of 41 million tonnes. BS 250710 |
| EBCs quotas for non-income tax payers |
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| The chairman of the National Commission for Economically Backward Classes, which gave its report this week after working on it for four years, has said EBCs, who number about 50-60 million, deserve the same concessions as given to scheduled castes and tribes.Welfare measures are a must for the EBC. Whatever is provided for SC/STs should be provided to the EBC, too. B S 250710 |
| Krsr/and 134/260710 |
